The 25 – Kermit Baker

In his role as chief economist for the American Institute of Architects in Washington, D.C., Kermit Baker analyzes business and construction trends for the U.S. economy and examines their impact on AIA members and the architectural profession.

Baker, the institute’s first economist, was charged with building an economics team in the national office.

“Since architecture firms are largely comprised of relatively small businesses working in one of the most cyclical sectors of the economy, they are constantly challenged by volatile workloads,” he says. “One of my key purposes is to assist in identifying economic trends and help architecture firms plan for future workloads.”

It was he who originated the AIA’s “Work on the Boards” survey, a monthly assessment of business conditions at architecture firms and the source of the widely followed Architecture Billings Index, which is considered one of the leading indicators for the construction industry.

He also coordinates the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel and regularly writes economics columns for the AIA-member electronic newspaper, AIArchitect.

In addition to his duties at AIA, Baker, from 1995 to 2021, served as project director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, his alma mater. A research program, its mission is to better understand the dynamics of the U.S. repair and renovation industry so these businesses can better take advantage of market opportunities.

Under his leadership, the center created the biennial “Improving America’s Housing” reports and the “Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity” that tracks and projects activity in this field.

“Among other findings, we determined that home improvement activity was essentially equal in size to the entire residential construction industry, and that it helps to ensure a sustainable and energy-efficient housing stock,” he says, adding that “the research effort has opened up a much broader effort to study this industry.”

Baker, who has a master’s degree in urban planning from Harvard and a PhD from MIT in the same field, was made an honorary member of the American Institute of Architects in 2002 and was elected to the National Association of Home Builders National Remodeling Hall of Fame in 2006.